Hester said this trend has continued, but is in decline because of the increase in PCP-funded retail new cars from the past three years. Franchised dealers are proactively getting those PCP cars back in early ahead of the end of the contract, putting the user into a new car and getting a second bite with the original vehicle as a low mileage, good condition, used car.

“They’re not having to buy a lot of stock because they’re bringing in their own, and the result of that is that they’re trading on, which plays into the independents’ hands,” said Hester.

He does not predict that this greater availability will lead to a rapid slump in values. “All year, the right car has been making absolutely ridiculous money, and I think that will carry on. We’ll see plenty of performance over and above CAP for the right cars.

“If the market does come under a lot of pressure next year for any reason, then values have a long way to fall before being anything like they were before 2008, and I can’t see it.”

At Glass’s, head of valuations Rupert Pontin said there will be a greater volume of used cars, and a greater choice, coming to market in 2015. He believes the outlook for the first half of the year at least is positive, as the Government tries to avoid any upsets ahead of the election.

Pontin said Glass’s has detected an increase in trade stock coming to auctions and trade-to-trade online platforms since June, building by 1% or 2% a month, and he expects this will rise more rapidly from next spring. Volumes are currently at their highest for 30 months.

Whereas fleets had been changing their business-focused cars, perk car users are now being allowed to change. That product, typically with higher specification and extra equipment, is now reaching the market, Pontin said. This gives trade buyers more choice and may impact the values of the more common, standard ex-fleet cars. He said franchised dealers are no longer in desperate need of stock, and can afford to be more selective on the right car at the right price.  

 

How will the new car boom affect the used car market?

Research by BCA showed used car sales volumes returned to the pre-recession level of 7.4m in 2013, 1.1m more sales than the mid-recession low of 2009, and the used car market value climbed by £4.6 billion to an all-time high of £42.7bn. Value records have continued to be broken in 2014, giving dealers more reasons to be cheerful.