Manufacturers should hedge their bets on the future trajectory of electric vehicles - even entertain ‘heretical’ theories - before making their best bet on the speed of transition, according to the latest KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey.

When it came to powertrain technology, the survey revealed that more companies seem to be covering all bases with hybrid technologies jumping from fourth to second place overall in technology.

It did however find that industry executive expects the shift to electric powertrains to continue to mature. In the past, when KPMG asked executives across the industry about how they expected EV penetration to trend in their markets, the responses varied widely.

Now the range of estimates has narrowed, a sign of greater realism. Even so, the mean estimates for penetration rose in this year’s survey. In Western Europe, for example, respondents last year estimated that battery-electric vehicles would account for 24% of sales in 2030; this year the consensus estimate was 30%. In the US, the estimate went from 29% to 33% and in China the estimate jumped from 24% to 36%.

Despite the flurry of new models by established brands, survey respondents said they still expect Tesla to remain on top. The opening of the Tesla Gigafactory near Berlin in March 2022 is helping the car maker gain share and is heightening awareness in among Europe.