The March registration figure of 317,786 (up 10.4%) was the highest since 2019. However, to put that into perspective, it was also the same as the market in March 2009, when the country was struggling in the global financial crisis. It is also way below the 500k-plus March figures for 2016 and 2017.

The growth in the first quarter has come from the fleet market (up by 28.9%), as companies re-fleet after supply chain shortages. However, the underlying weakness of the economy is shown by sales to private buyers, which were down by 9.2% YTD.

Equally worrying, the market share of BEVs stalled at 15.5% YTD, which is a very long way from the government’s mandate of 22% in 2024 and 28% in 2025. Companies that fail to meet the mandate will either have to buy allowances from other manufacturers who have exceeded their target, or pay £15,000 per car. That could be lucrative for Tesla who can sell credits, but it won’t be great for UK manufacturers who will struggle to meet that figure.

The development of market share between PHEV and BEV is something of a conundrum. In the first quarter of 2022, PHEV sales were only up 12%, compared to a growth in BEV sales of 102%. It seemed that that, as a bridge technology to BEV, PHEV would soon have done its job, and BEVs would take over. Yet in the first quarter of 2024, PHEVs grew by 34%, while BEVs only grew by 11%.

It now seems that the BEV early adopters have all adopted, and BEVs are struggling to broaden their appeal to the mainstream, writes David Francis.