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Used LCV stock to rise 48% by 2019 - prediction

The supply of used LCVs is to increase by 48% by 2019.

The growth forecast on 2015’s figures by Cap HPI is a result of new van sales over the last few years, which will feed used stock into the market and, along with “lacklustre” economic growth, force downward pressure on used values.

The prediction comes on the back of analysis of three-to-five year old LCVs in the vehicle park based on historic new registrations.

John Watts, senior editor, commercial vehicles for Cap HPI, said: “Shortages in LCVs, over the last couple of years, have resulted in demand exceeding supply. Our figures suggest that this situation is likely to reverse by 2019, which is good news for buyers wanting quality van stock.

“However, we also forecast a 10-15% fall in like-for-like values, compared to 2015. 

“Gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts have been reduced, the main EU economies are still struggling, and China is not performing as it was. 

“Whilst we’re by no heading for another recession, the overall outlook appears to be rather stagnant.”

Cap HPI volumes of 3-5 yr old LCVs in the vehicle parc
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Volume 987,933 954,478 813,702 698,764 669,454 722,709 770,867 832,400 972,759 1,071,686

 



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