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Only 10% of scrappage buys were ‘pull forward’ sales

The vast majority of the almost 400,000 scrappage sales were not the ‘pull forward’ sales many in the industry had feared.

According to research, more than 90% of new cars bought under the scheme were sold to customers who would not otherwise have bought a new car.

According to the research by Glass’s, which drew on information gathered from car manufacturers after the scrappage scheme closed, fewer than 10% of customers who bought under the Government-backed scheme said they planned to buy a new car in future years. Without the £2,000 incentive, the vast majority of buyers would have purchased used cars, says Glass’s.

Andy Carroll, managing director at Glass’s, said:  “Only one in 10 of the scrappage sales could be said to have been pulled forward – in contrast with experiences in other European markets.”

In the German scheme, where scrappage sales hit 700,000 units, it is expected that around 200,000 of these were pulled forward from 2010 sales.

The research also uncovered that only 20% of those who purchased through the scheme in 2009 had intended to buy a new car last year.  In light of this, Glass’s estimates that the total volume for 2009 would have reached 1.78 million units without the scheme, whereas registrations actually hit 1.99 million units.

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