Author and car industry expert James Dillon has claimed that diesel technology is now “out of bounds” to manufacturers as downward pressures on consumer demand for diesel cars reach a critical level.
Writing in the IMI Magazine this month, Dillon said that growing concerns over dangerous air pollution and the emergence of other manufacturers being scrutinised for attempting to cheat diesel emissions tests following the VW scandal were both high on the list of issues affecting the reputation of diesel.
But Dillon claimed that this is just the tip of the iceberg looming on diesel’s horizon, with the spiralling costs to manufacturers of meeting the increasingly demanding emissions the sharpest nail in diesel’s coffin.
“From a technological perspective, diesel emission control technology is out-of-bounds of the cost/benefit envelope,” he said.
Dillon also predicts that Government proposals like the 2017 VED changes, the potential for a more stringent emissions test on the MOT, and the hint of a scrappage scheme, will all hit demand for diesel.
He expects diesel will be replaced by the wholesale uptake of hybrid and electric cars in the future.
Addressing the IMI’s members, Dillon said: “Aftermarket garages should prepare for the potential shift in automotive power sources. Upskilling to be able to service and repair hybrids and EVs should be on every repairer’s medium term plan. Technical training, business processes, tools and equipment all warrant investigation.
“As a result of the technology merry-go-round, we’ll see garages who once said ‘we don’t do engine management’, and then said ‘we don’t do diesels’ who are now saying ‘we don’t do hybrids’ change in order to adapt to the times and technology and to remain in business.”