UK used car market stability predicted to deliver 7.64m units this year

Cox Automotive is predicting a used car market of 7.64 million units in the UK this year as a result of continued stability and the data feeding in from new car market forecasting.

While this represents a flat year-on-year performance, it remains 3.6% above the long-term average from 2001 to 2019, reinforcing the used market’s role as a stabilising force amid wider industry volatility.

Despite ongoing supply challenges, particularly for vehicles aged three to five years, the market is showing signs of resilience.

Supply constraints expected to ease in H2

Supply constraints, largely a legacy of pandemic-era production slowdowns, are expected to ease in the second half of the year, offering retailers renewed opportunities to meet consistent consumer demand.

Stabilisation of trade values

A further positive signal for the industry is the continued stabilisation of trade values.

Cox now sees values returning to more typical seasonal patterns, particularly for petrol and diesel models. Looking at vehicles aged between 24 and 72 months old, values have remained consistent over the previous 18 months. Specifically, petrol values stayed flat - 60% of original cost new (OCN) in April 2025 versus 60% in October 2023 - a marked difference from the 6% dip that petrol vehicles saw between October 2022 and October 2023. Meanwhile, hybrid values declined by only 4% in the same period and diesel by 7%.

Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive, said: “The used market continues to provide a vital anchor for the automotive sector.

"As trade values stabilise and consumer appetite for affordable vehicles remains strong, retailers have a clear opportunity to set robust retail prices, where market conditions support them, and maximise their margins.

"Strategic stock selection and strong retail pricing will be crucial to sustaining profitability in a supply-constrained environment.”

The commercial vehicle sector also remains robust.

Diesel continues to dominate, but electric vans are gaining ground, with a 62.6% increase in arrivals at Manheim sites in Q1 2025.

However, infrastructure concerns and cost sensitivity continue to limit buyer confidence, with only four in 10 electric vans selling first time.