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Mercedes to become EV market leader by 2021, says PA Consulting

Mercedes EQ at Paris Motor Show 2016

Mercedes-Benz is expected to overtake Tesla to become the market leader in electric vehicle (EV) production by 2021, according to PA Consulting.

Tesla is predicted to sell the most electric cars in 2019, but will fall to seventh place by 2021, it claims.

German carmakers Mercedes, BMW and VW will come first, second and fourth respectively, while Renault Nissan Mitsubishi are expected to be ranked third.

Tesla, says PA Consulting, faces an uncertain future due to production problems of Model 3 and its profit expectations.

However, the electric carmaker may be able to overcome some of those issues after signing an agreement with Chinese authorities to build a factory in Shanghai. The "Gigafactory" would be Tesla's first outside of the US.

To build the ranking, PA Consulting scored six key success factors out of 100, using an average to determine a car maker’s e-mobility potential:

  • Technology and strategy (model portfolio and technology roadmap) – 30% weighting factor
  • Battery technology (cost position and technology maturity) – 20% weighting factor
  • Culture and incentives (leadership and incentive system) – 10% weighting factor
  • Supplier network (value chain integration) – 15% weighting factor
  • Ecosystem and partners (charging technology and third-party services) – 15% weighting factor
  • Financial performance (EBIT as e-mobility investment indication) – 10% weighting factor

Thomas Goettle, head of automotive at PA Consulting, said: “Achieving CO2 targets and improving car makers’ future mobility performance score go hand in hand. However, this call to action will come with a huge impact on the companies’ staff resources.

“Our research shows that the roles of 267,000 employees at 16 brands across Europe will be under threat, of which 141,000 employees may need re-qualification – all within the next decade.”

He added: “To improve their future mobility performance score and meet CO2 targets by 2021, car makers should not only accelerate and realign their new product development, they need to consider value creation in their supply chain and increase sales by customer focus.”

Future Mobility Performance Score – 2019 vs. 2021

Car maker

Future mobility score 2019

Rank in 2019

Future mobility score 2021

Rank in 2021

Tesla

82

1

81

7

Renault/Nissan

/Mitsubishi

79

2

85

3

BMW

78

3

87

2

Hyundai Kia

72

4

79

8

Daimler

71

5

88

1

Volvo

70

6

83

5

Volkswagen

69

7

84

4

Toyota

66

8

82

6

General Motors

62

9

68

10

Jaguar/Land Rover

60

10

75

9

PSA/Citroen/Opel

58

11

66

11

Ford

45

12

61

12

Fiat Chrysler

30

13

41

13

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