While car buyers will have more choice of new and used car stock in 2024 the challenges and uncertainties for OEMs and franchised dealers will only continue to mount.

That's a warning from Cox Automotive's insight and strategy director Philip Nothard, who has published the company's latest forecast predicting a 2.02 million new car market this year, which would be a rise of 6.1% on 2023's total.

It also predicts 12 months of stabilisation for used car markets, with transactions reaching 7.35 million units.

"In summary, we anticipate a year of comparative stabilisation and modest growth in the continued evolution of how cars are bought, sold, owned, and used," Nothard said.

“The health of the sector is improving, but the list of external forces shaping macro activity in automotive will get longer this year,” he added. “Among these factors is the ZEV mandate, which prescribes the proportion of total annual sales that must be zero-emission vehicles. The agency sales model remains an unknown and we do not yet know the full implications of its expected, widespread introduction.  

“There’s also the fact that production is beginning to exceed demand for the first time since the pandemic. However, we’re likely to see a split between manufacturers seeking profitability at the cost of volume and market share and those returning to a ‘push’ market at the cost of profit for volume and market dominance."

Nothard also highlighted that the price difference between ICE and EV continues to be a barrier to some consumers, who may hope that the greater choice and competition introduced by Chinese brands launching here may narrow the gap. 

“Amid all these factors, businesses must act decisively and deploy strategies based on proper data-driven insight.” he said.